Assessing efficacy of hepatocellular carcinoma prediction scores to prioritise hepatitis B surveillance in the COVID‐19 era

Sinharay, Ricky; Grant, Andrew J.; Rivett, Lucy; Blackwell, Rebecca; Mells, George; Gelson, William

OBJECTIVE: An estimated 250 million people worldwide are chronically infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV), the leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) globally. The novel Sars‐cov2 virus continues to spread at an alarming rate, and with guidance at the onset of the pandemic recommending the deferral of HCC surveillance, the implications on liver cancer care are now emerging and highlight the urgent need for reorganisation of services. METHODS: We analysed how five HCC risk prediction scores could aid stratification of patients with chronic HBV. We calculated scores using parameters measured from 3 years prior (where available, n = 17) and at the time of HCC diagnosis in all adult patients with chronic HBV diagnosed with HCC (n = 46), and controls (n = 100). We compared the number of patients requiring cancer surveillance according to each score and regional surveillance guidance. RESULTS: The aMAP score had the highest discriminatory performance in HCC risk prediction at 3 years (area under receiver‐operating characteristic curve (auROC) of 0.824), followed by the mREACH B score (auROC of 0.719), and mPAGE B score (auROC of 0.742). However, only the mREACH B score had a negative predictive value (NPV) >99%. Applying the mREACH B score to our HBV cohort identified 11 patients requiring HCC surveillance, compared with 62 under current guidelines. CONCLUSION: The use of HCC risk prediction scores could streamline the surveillance of patients with chronic HBV at a time of extremely limited resources. Overall, the mREACH B score had both a strong discriminatory performance and a high NPV, thus safely identifying low risk patients not requiring surveillance.