Author: Slav W Hermanowicz
Title: Forecasting the Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemics using a simple (simplistic) model - update (Feb. 8, 2020) Document date: 2020_2_5
ID: 8kdtpwbv_24
Snippet: Open circlenewest data point not included in the model fitting Despite differences among different estimate, the critical feature of the model predictions is the stabilization of the total number of cases in the next several days (by mid-February) and not a dramatic exponential growth. This prediction is made purely based on the described analysis and may or may not happen in the future. One significant factor that could invalidate the prediction.....
Document: Open circlenewest data point not included in the model fitting Despite differences among different estimate, the critical feature of the model predictions is the stabilization of the total number of cases in the next several days (by mid-February) and not a dramatic exponential growth. This prediction is made purely based on the described analysis and may or may not happen in the future. One significant factor that could invalidate the predictions is a possibility of secondary or parallel outbreaks perhaps with different etiology as previously suggested for the original Wuhan outbreak (P. Wu et al., 2020) 16-Jan 21-Jan 26-Jan 31-Jan 5- . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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