Facemask shortage and the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak: Reflection on public health measures

Wu, Huailiang; Huang, Jian; Zhang, Casper JP; He, Zonglin; Ming, Wai-kit

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the facemask shortage during the novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) outbreak in China. We have summarized in detail the management strategies implemented by the Chinese governments during the outbreaks. By considering three scenarios for the outbreak development, we simulated the facemasks availability from late-December 2019 to late-April 2020 and estimated the duration of sufficient facemask supplies. Our findings showed that if the COVID-19 outbreak occurred only in Wuhan city or Hubei province, facemask shortage would not appear with the existing public health measures. However, if the outbreak occurred in the whole of China, a shortage of facemask could be substantial assuming no alternative public health measures. Supplies of facemasks in the whole of China would have been sufficient for both healthcare workers and the general population if the COVID-19 outbreak only occurred in Wuhan city or Hubei province. However, if the outbreak occurred in the whole of China, facemask supplies in China could last for 5 days if under the existing public health measures and a shortage of 853 million facemasks is expected by 30 Apr 2020. Assuming a gradually decreased import volume, we estimated that dramatic increase in productivity (42.7 times of the usual level) is needed to mitigate the facemask crisis by the end of April. In light of the COVID-19 outbreak in China, a shortage of facemasks and other medical resources can considerably compromise the efficacy of public health measures. Effective public health measures should also consider the adequacy and affordability of medical resources. Global collaboration should be strengthened to prevent the development of a global pandemic from a regional epidemic via easing the medical resources crisis in the affected countries.