Author: Yoshiyuki Sugishita; Junko Kurita; Tamie Sugawara; Yasushi Ohkusa
Title: Forecast of the COVID-19 outbreak, collapse of medical facilities, and lockdown effects in Tokyo, Japan Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: 86ovj7xg_3
Snippet: In metropolitan Tokyo, which has about 13 million residents, 234 symptomatic cases were identified as of March 28, 2020. The entire course of the outbreak must be predicted to evaluate the necessary medical resources for policymaking. Moreover, one must evaluate, as a worst case scenario, the collapse of medical facilities which can occur when medical needs far exceed the capacity of medical resources. Under such circumstances, the case-fatality .....
Document: In metropolitan Tokyo, which has about 13 million residents, 234 symptomatic cases were identified as of March 28, 2020. The entire course of the outbreak must be predicted to evaluate the necessary medical resources for policymaking. Moreover, one must evaluate, as a worst case scenario, the collapse of medical facilities which can occur when medical needs far exceed the capacity of medical resources. Under such circumstances, the case-fatality ratio (CFR) rises considerably. Especially, the capacity of intensive-care-unit (ICU) facilities is usually not so large.
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