Selected article for: "simple model and SIR model"
Author: Yoshiyuki Sugishita; Junko Kurita; Tamie Sugawara; Yasushi Ohkusa
Title: Forecast of the COVID-19 outbreak, collapse of medical facilities, and lockdown effects in Tokyo, Japan
  • Document date: 2020_4_6
    • ID: 86ovj7xg_35
    Snippet: We applied a simple SIR model with three age classes including asymptomatic cases and assuming some proportion of children as protected. An earlier study [14] [15] [16] Nevertheless, their findings must be considered carefully. They specifically examined only those patients who had been infected by the known confirmed cases. However, half of the patients had no link to any known confirmed case. They were probably counted as primary cases but not .....
    Document: We applied a simple SIR model with three age classes including asymptomatic cases and assuming some proportion of children as protected. An earlier study [14] [15] [16] Nevertheless, their findings must be considered carefully. They specifically examined only those patients who had been infected by the known confirmed cases. However, half of the patients had no link to any known confirmed case. They were probably counted as primary cases but not as secondary cases. They were infected by someone in the community. In fact, until 26 February, there were 302 infected persons in the community. Of those, 161 cases were unlinked. Therefore, those unlinked 161 cases were actually secondary cases that had not appeared as secondary cases in the figures of an earlier study [15] .

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