Forecast of the COVID-19 outbreak, collapse of medical facilities, and lockdown effects in Tokyo, Japan

Yoshiyuki Sugishita; Junko Kurita; Tamie Sugawara; Yasushi Ohkusa

Moreover, on April 26, medical services can be expected to collapse. Eventually, the cases ending in mortality will be approximately 0.5 million in Tokyo if no lockout is conducted. The number of deaths will be about five times greater than the average number of deaths during an equivalent period. Results also demonstrate that if a lockdown is initiated on April 6 and if more than 60% of trips outside the home were restricted voluntarily, then collapse of medical facilities might be avoided. It is noteworthy that no law exists to enforce curfews in Japan. Therefore, a lockout would ask, not force, residents to avoid leaving their home voluntarily. Consequently, cooperation with a lockout must achieve voluntary cooperation to a great degree. Evidence related to compliance is scarce because no lockdown has been conducted in Japan to date. An exceptional study asked people about restricting movement outside the home if the government asked them to do it [18] . Results showed that 93.3% would comply voluntarily with such a government request. Collapse of medical facilities from COVID-19 might be avoided in Japan, even with no enforcement of a lockdown, All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.