Author: Slav W Hermanowicz
Title: Forecasting the Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemics using a simple (simplistic) model - update (Feb. 8, 2020) Document date: 2020_2_5
ID: 8kdtpwbv_1
Snippet: Recent outbreak of a novel coronavirus (designated 2019-nCoV) originated in Wuhan, China raised serious public health concerns and many human tragedies. To manage the epidemics resulting from virus spreading across China and other countries forecasting the occurrence of future cases is extremely important. Such forecasting is very complicated and uncertain since many factors are poorly understood or estimated with a large possible error. Two majo.....
Document: Recent outbreak of a novel coronavirus (designated 2019-nCoV) originated in Wuhan, China raised serious public health concerns and many human tragedies. To manage the epidemics resulting from virus spreading across China and other countries forecasting the occurrence of future cases is extremely important. Such forecasting is very complicated and uncertain since many factors are poorly understood or estimated with a large possible error. Two major factors include spatial movement of virus carriers (i.e., infected individuals) and the basic reproduction number R0 (average number of new infections originated from an infected individual).
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