Author: Yoshiyuki Sugishita; Junko Kurita; Tamie Sugawara; Yasushi Ohkusa
Title: Forecast of the COVID-19 outbreak, collapse of medical facilities, and lockdown effects in Tokyo, Japan Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: 86ovj7xg_32
Snippet: During January 14 -March 28 in Tokyo, 4 cases among children, 145 cases among adults, and 85 cases among elderly people were identified as community-acquired COVID-19 for whom the onset date was published. Figure 1 depicts the empirical distribution of incubation period among 62 cases for which the exposed date and onset date were published by MHLW. Its mode and median were six days; the average was 6.74 days. Table 3 according to the proportion .....
Document: During January 14 -March 28 in Tokyo, 4 cases among children, 145 cases among adults, and 85 cases among elderly people were identified as community-acquired COVID-19 for whom the onset date was published. Figure 1 depicts the empirical distribution of incubation period among 62 cases for which the exposed date and onset date were published by MHLW. Its mode and median were six days; the average was 6.74 days. Table 3 according to the proportion of voluntary restriction of people leaving their home. A collapse of medical facilities could be prevented if more than 60% of trips outside of the home were restricted. The collapse of medical facilities could e postponed by three months if more than 50% but fewer than All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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