Generalized logistic growth modeling of the COVID-19 outbreak in 29 provinces in China and in the rest of the world

Ke Wu; Didier Darcet; Qian Wang; Didier Sornette

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.11.20034363 doi: medRxiv preprint end of the outbreak as the day when the 5 days moving average of the growth rate becomes smaller than 1%, then 7 provinces spent 8-12 days from the peak to the end, 7 provinces spent 13-16 days, 13 provinces spent 17-20 days, and 2 provinces spent 21-22 days. For the six provinces that have the longest duration from the start of their outbreak to the peak (more than 15 days), it took 8-13 days for them to see the end of the outbreak (Figure 3 ). This means that these 6 provinces were able to control the local transmissions of the imported cases quite well, so that the secondary transmissions were limited. In contrast, 20 provinces took 28-31 days from the start to the end of the outbreak. Thus, those provinces that seem to have responded sluggishly during the early phase of the epidemics seem to have ramped up aggressively their countermeasures to achieve good results. . Inverse relationship found across the 29 Chinse provinces between the number of days from peak to the end and the duration from start to the peak of the epidemics. Here, the end of the outbreak is defined operationally as the day when the 5 days moving average of the growth rate becomes smaller than 1%.