Generalized logistic growth modeling of the COVID-19 outbreak in 29 provinces in China and in the rest of the world

Ke Wu; Didier Darcet; Qian Wang; Didier Sornette

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03. 11.20034363 doi: medRxiv preprint The situation in Italy is quite severe at the moment of writing. As of March 10, Italy has the largest number of confirmed cases (9172) and deaths (463) among all the countries except China. The outbreak in Italy was mainly due to a few outbreak clusters, such as Lombardy and Veneto. Similar to Japan, the growth rate of the confirmed cases at Italy has been fluctuating between 20% and 30% for a week, which is still far from the inflection point. The generalized logistic model provides the best scenario, i.e. predicting that the inflection point will be reached in 10 days. This scenario will already lead to a total cumulative number of infected Figure 9 shows the number of confirmed cases per million people in the four hotspot countries, in comparison with mainland China excluding Hubei, the epicenter Hubei province, Europe, . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.