Selected article for: "active number and adjusted seir model"
Author: Xiang Zhou; Na Hong; Yingying Ma; Jie He; Huizhen Jiang; Chun Liu; Guangliang Shan; Longxiang Su; Weiguo Zhu; Yun Long
Title: Forecasting the Worldwide Spread of COVID-19 based on Logistic Model and SEIR Model
  • Document date: 2020_3_30
    • ID: 52zjm9jt_38
    Snippet: In Scenario 3, the adjusted SEIR model results show that under strict control measures, the number of active cases will reach a peak in 16-32 days (from early April to middle April 2020) after the initial date, when the number of cases reaches 100. Appendix D shows the detailed results of the adjusted SEIR model predictions of the 8 countries. Japan and South Korea took isolation measures when the disease was still in the early stage of transmiss.....
    Document: In Scenario 3, the adjusted SEIR model results show that under strict control measures, the number of active cases will reach a peak in 16-32 days (from early April to middle April 2020) after the initial date, when the number of cases reaches 100. Appendix D shows the detailed results of the adjusted SEIR model predictions of the 8 countries. Japan and South Korea took isolation measures when the disease was still in the early stage of transmission, its peak value was low, and the cumulative number of infected people was relatively small. Especially in Japan, our predicted peak value is less than 1560, which shows that the disease spread has been well controlled in the early stage. However, the transmission in European countries and the US is in the outbreak phase as of the date of our data collection. The adjusted SEIR model predicted that the peak values of Spain, Italy, Germany, France and other countries are between 10,420 and 85,750.

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