Author: M.Benavides, Efren
Title: Robust predictive model for Carriers, Infections and Recoveries (CIR): first update for CoVid-19 in Spain Cord-id: gzwqrgku Document date: 2020_4_12
ID: gzwqrgku
Snippet: This article reports a first update on the assesment of the model previously presented in arXiv:2003.13890v1. New available data have been used to feed the model and the comparison with real data still shows good agreement. The main novelty of the model is that it keeps track of the date of infection of a single individual and uses stochastic distributions to aggregate individuals who share the same date of infection. In addition, it uses two types of infections, mild and serious, with a differe
Document: This article reports a first update on the assesment of the model previously presented in arXiv:2003.13890v1. New available data have been used to feed the model and the comparison with real data still shows good agreement. The main novelty of the model is that it keeps track of the date of infection of a single individual and uses stochastic distributions to aggregate individuals who share the same date of infection. In addition, it uses two types of infections, mild and serious, with a different recovery time. These features are implemented in a set of differential equations which determine the number of Carriers, Infections, Recoveries, Hospitalized and Deaths.
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