Selected article for: "ES propagation route and propagation route"
Author: Antoine Danchin; Tuen Wai Patrick Ng; Gabriel TURINICI
Title: A new transmission route for the propagation of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus
  • Document date: 2020_2_18
    • ID: 4ah705nc_24
    Snippet: We start with a simulation of the Wuhan city epidemic. We take into account the quarantine starting January 23rd and impose a reduction (given by a multiplicative factor that is fitted numerically) of the transmission parameters β and β ES following that date. This attenuation is found, as is the case for all other parameters, in the course of a search procedure that imposes a match of the -Detected‖ patients of the model and the number of re.....
    Document: We start with a simulation of the Wuhan city epidemic. We take into account the quarantine starting January 23rd and impose a reduction (given by a multiplicative factor that is fitted numerically) of the transmission parameters β and β ES following that date. This attenuation is found, as is the case for all other parameters, in the course of a search procedure that imposes a match of the -Detected‖ patients of the model and the number of reported cases available from communications of the WHO or Chinese authorities. The results are displayed below for the optimal parameters given in the supplementary material. The epidemic size is around 32,000. The key observation here is the presence and importance of the alternative form -A‖ and the alternative propagation route ES (see also below). The effect and importance of quarantine measures: we tested what happens if we discard the attenuation factors found by the fit procedure. We obtained a total epidemic size of 112,539, which is a sharp increase with respect to the baseline scenario.

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