Author: Jacob Deasy; Emma Rocheteau; Katharina Kohler; Daniel J. Stubbs; Peitro Barbiero; Pietro Liò; Ari Ercole
Title: Forecasting ultra-early intensive care strain from COVID-19 in England Document date: 2020_3_23
ID: i37ygb2z_21
Snippet: Although we have resolved ICU admissions to the level of a commissioning region, this assumes that each region behaves as a homogeneously allocated 'pool' of ICU beds, which is not necessarily true because inter-hospital ICU-to-ICU transfers may not be feasible for both operational and clinical reasons. We do not have more granular data available, but it is worth considering the likelihood that individual hospitals will reach critical capacity be.....
Document: Although we have resolved ICU admissions to the level of a commissioning region, this assumes that each region behaves as a homogeneously allocated 'pool' of ICU beds, which is not necessarily true because inter-hospital ICU-to-ICU transfers may not be feasible for both operational and clinical reasons. We do not have more granular data available, but it is worth considering the likelihood that individual hospitals will reach critical capacity before the whole region. This has already been seen within the pandemic at certain London hospitals [19] . In this sense our predictions represent a 'best case' scenario and cannot be used for decision making at the level of an individual unit.
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