Author: Anna L. Ziff; Robert M. Ziff
Title: Fractal kinetics of COVID-19 pandemic Document date: 2020_2_20
ID: jljjqs6m_26
Snippet: In Figs. 4a and 4b, we plot the total number of confirmed cases and total number of reported deaths, as a function of the number of days beginning with January 21, 2020, when the WHO first started reporting on this pandemic in its Situation Reports [World Health Organization, 2020] . Both cases and deaths continue to grow at an alarming rate. In standard epidemiological analysis, one assumes that the number of cases in diseases like this one grow.....
Document: In Figs. 4a and 4b, we plot the total number of confirmed cases and total number of reported deaths, as a function of the number of days beginning with January 21, 2020, when the WHO first started reporting on this pandemic in its Situation Reports [World Health Organization, 2020] . Both cases and deaths continue to grow at an alarming rate. In standard epidemiological analysis, one assumes that the number of cases in diseases like this one grows exponentially, based upon the idea of a fixed reproduction rate. If each person infects n other people where n > 1 (the reproduction number), then the total number of cases should grow as n t/Ï„ = e at , where Ï„ is the incubation time, which depends on the characteristics of the particular disease. Several studies of have taken this approach to model the number of cases [e.g., . This assumes there is no inhibition due to the interaction with already infected people, quarantine, or other prophylactic measures.
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