Author: Jacob Deasy; Emma Rocheteau; Katharina Kohler; Daniel J. Stubbs; Peitro Barbiero; Pietro Liò; Ari Ercole
Title: Forecasting ultra-early intensive care strain from COVID-19 in England Document date: 2020_3_23
ID: i37ygb2z_25
Snippet: Early warning of an impending need for ICU surge capacity is crucial if there is to be sufficient time to re-configure services. We have shown that ultra-early data can be used to make time-sensitive forecasts of ICU occupancy. We show, subject to our assumptions, that it is credible that ICU requirements may become challenging within weeks. There remains a significant degree of uncertainty in the predictions due both to limitations of the report.....
Document: Early warning of an impending need for ICU surge capacity is crucial if there is to be sufficient time to re-configure services. We have shown that ultra-early data can be used to make time-sensitive forecasts of ICU occupancy. We show, subject to our assumptions, that it is credible that ICU requirements may become challenging within weeks. There remains a significant degree of uncertainty in the predictions due both to limitations of the reporting data and modelling assumptions. This emphasises the need for the collection of real-time patient-facing local data by initiatives such as CHESS [18] and a dynamic approach to improving models as new data becomes available.
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