Author: Ke Wu; Didier Darcet; Qian Wang; Didier Sornette
Title: Generalized logistic growth modeling of the COVID-19 outbreak in 29 provinces in China and in the rest of the world Document date: 2020_3_16
ID: 9607dy2o_4
Snippet: In this paper, we employ the logistic growth model, the generalized logistic growth model, the generalized growth model and the generalized Richards model, which have been successfully applied to describe previous epidemics [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] . All these models have some limitations and are only applicable in some stages of the outbreak, or when enough data points are available. Thus, we first calibrate different models to the reported numb.....
Document: In this paper, we employ the logistic growth model, the generalized logistic growth model, the generalized growth model and the generalized Richards model, which have been successfully applied to describe previous epidemics [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] . All these models have some limitations and are only applicable in some stages of the outbreak, or when enough data points are available. Thus, we first calibrate different models to the reported number of infected cases in the COVID-19 epidemics from Jan. 19 to March 10 for the whole of China and 29 provinces in mainland China, and then draw some lessons useful to interpret the results of a similar modeling exercise performed on the four countries that are undergoing major outbreaks of this virus: Japan, South Korea, Iran, and Italy. Our analysis dissects the development of the epidemics in China and the impact of the drastic control measures both at the aggregate level and within each province. Borrowing from the experience of China, we made projections on the development of the outbreak in the four key countries and the whole Europe, based on different scenarios provided by the results from different models. Our study employs simple models to quantitatively document the effects of the Chinese containment measures against the COVID-19, and provide informative implications for the coming pandemic.
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- infected case and outbreak stage: 1, 2, 3, 4
- infected case and previous epidemic: 1
- infected case and reported number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16
- infected case and simple model: 1
- key country and major outbreak: 1, 2
- key country and reported number: 1
- logistic growth model and major outbreak: 1
- logistic growth model and outbreak stage: 1
- logistic growth model and previous epidemic: 1, 2, 3, 4
- logistic growth model and reported number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
- logistic growth model and simple model: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
- major outbreak and outbreak stage: 1, 2, 3
- major outbreak and reported number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
- major outbreak and virus major outbreak: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36
- modeling exercise and outbreak stage: 1
- modeling exercise and reported number: 1
- outbreak stage and reported number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
- outbreak stage and simple model: 1, 2, 3
- previous epidemic and reported number: 1, 2, 3, 4
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date