COVID-19 attack ratio among children critically depends on the time to removal and activity levels

Wu, J.; Bragazzi, N. L.; Scarabel, F.; McCarthy, Z.; David, J.; Group, LIAMADERSIM COVID-19 Reopening and Recovery Modeling

The attack ratio in a subpopulation is defined as the total number of infections over the total number of individuals in this subpopulation. Using a methodology based on modified age-stratified transmission dynamics model, we estimated the attack ratio of COVID-19 among children (individuals 0-11 years) in Ontario, Canada when a large proportion of individuals eligible for vaccination (age 12 and above) are vaccinated to achieve herd immunity among this subpopulation, or the effective herd immunity with additional physical distancing measures (hence effective herd immunity). We describe the relationship between this attack ratio among children, the time to remove infected individuals from the transmission chain and the children-to-children daily contact rate, while considering the increased transmissibility of virus variants (using the Delta variant as an example). We further illustrate the generality and applicability of the methodology established by performing an analysis of the attack ratio of COVID-19 among children in the Canadian population. The clinical attack ratio, the number of symptomatic infections over the total population can be informed from the attack ratio, and both can be reduced substantially via a combination of higher vaccine coverage in the vaccine eligible population, reduced social mixing among children, and rapid testing and isolation.