Author: Rosario Megna
Title: First month of the epidemic caused by COVID-19 in Italy: current status and real-time outbreak development forecast Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: cxmw7bfu_13
Snippet: then continue else a = a( n-1 ); b = b( n-1 ); N = n-1 with min_n = 10000, max_n = 150000, and delta_n = 1000 for the National evaluation and min_n = 5000, max_n = 70000, and delta_n = 500 for the Regional evaluations. At the end of the last cycle, the algorithm provides parameters for best-fit. In order assess the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the fit values, 1000 bootstrap resampling were computed, through the IPEC package of R. The graphics .....
Document: then continue else a = a( n-1 ); b = b( n-1 ); N = n-1 with min_n = 10000, max_n = 150000, and delta_n = 1000 for the National evaluation and min_n = 5000, max_n = 70000, and delta_n = 500 for the Regional evaluations. At the end of the last cycle, the algorithm provides parameters for best-fit. In order assess the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the fit values, 1000 bootstrap resampling were computed, through the IPEC package of R. The graphics were obtained using the ggplot2 package of R. Figure 1 shows the daily distribution of performed swabs and confirmed cases. The percentages on the bars are related to the ratio between the two variables (8.6% ± 8.1%).
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