Generalized logistic growth modeling of the COVID-19 outbreak in 29 provinces in China and in the rest of the world

Ke Wu; Didier Darcet; Qian Wang; Didier Sornette

Among the four countries, Japan and South Korea are the two first countries that reported confirmed cases. However, the situations are very different, as reflected from the statistics of these two Asian countries. Japan has reacted quite fast after the confirmation of the human-to-human Coronavirus Response Headquarters" and has been actively developing countermeasures against the virus outbreak. As of March 10, Japan has been reporting new cases consecutively since Feb 11, with a total of 567 confirmed cases, and a relatively stable daily growth rate at 11.8% (standard deviation 6.3%). Thanks to the early response of the Japanese government, there is no large-scale community transmission in Japan, and this growth rate is not high compared to the initial outbreak stages in China and many other countries.