Author: Ke Wu; Didier Darcet; Qian Wang; Didier Sornette
Title: Generalized logistic growth modeling of the COVID-19 outbreak in 29 provinces in China and in the rest of the world Document date: 2020_3_16
ID: 9607dy2o_81
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.11.20034363 doi: medRxiv preprint rationalizes the fact that parameter for the logistic model is found to be so large, such that the quadratic term in equation (4) However, it took China two weeks to reduce the growth rate from 10% to 1% under extreme containment measures. Given that we do not expect the same level of measures can be impl.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.11.20034363 doi: medRxiv preprint rationalizes the fact that parameter for the logistic model is found to be so large, such that the quadratic term in equation (4) However, it took China two weeks to reduce the growth rate from 10% to 1% under extreme containment measures. Given that we do not expect the same level of measures can be implemented in Japan sooner or later, the future scenario for Japan is highly uncertain, and will depend on whether the government decides to increase the containment measures. Without stronger and fast measures introduced in Japan, we see a significant risk concerning the upcoming July 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo.
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