Author: Yoshiyuki Sugishita; Junko Kurita; Tamie Sugawara; Yasushi Ohkusa
Title: Forecast of the COVID-19 outbreak, collapse of medical facilities, and lockdown effects in Tokyo, Japan Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: 86ovj7xg_24
Snippet: where k>m for several m and k. Here, m denotes the difference of the publishing dates between the two published. Date t represents the publishing date of the latest publishing. The explanatory variables were 1/k, 1/m, and 1/km. The degree of reporting delay was estimated as [estimated coefficient of constant term] + [estimated coefficient of 1/k]/k, when m was sufficiently large and time had passed. Therefore, this estimated degree of reporting d.....
Document: where k>m for several m and k. Here, m denotes the difference of the publishing dates between the two published. Date t represents the publishing date of the latest publishing. The explanatory variables were 1/k, 1/m, and 1/km. The degree of reporting delay was estimated as [estimated coefficient of constant term] + [estimated coefficient of 1/k]/k, when m was sufficiently large and time had passed. Therefore, this estimated degree of reporting delay multiplied by the latest published data is expected to be a prediction of the number of patients for whom the onset date was t-k. We used this adjusted number of patients in the latest few days, including those after VEC was adopted. We used published data of 2, 5, 6 and 9-17 March, 2020 provided by MLHW [1] .
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