Author: Yoshiyuki Sugishita; Junko Kurita; Tamie Sugawara; Yasushi Ohkusa
Title: Forecast of the COVID-19 outbreak, collapse of medical facilities, and lockdown effects in Tokyo, Japan Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: 86ovj7xg_37
Snippet: The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.02.20051490 doi: medRxiv preprint identified by a public health center (PHC) and that their distribution of the secondary cases was the same as the figure in an early study. That would mean that 28 primary cases infected 66 secondary cases. Therefore, the average number of secondary cases conditional on those which infected more than one .....
Document: The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.02.20051490 doi: medRxiv preprint identified by a public health center (PHC) and that their distribution of the secondary cases was the same as the figure in an early study. That would mean that 28 primary cases infected 66 secondary cases. Therefore, the average number of secondary cases conditional on those which infected more than one person was 2.44 (=66/27). Presumably, the 161 unlinked cases were infected by 66 hypothetical primary cases. Moreover, these hypothetical 66 cases represented infection by 27 other cases, and so on. Therefore, 112 cases infected 273 cases which were not identified by a PHC. In total, the average number of secondary cases is expected to be 1.5 (=(66+273)/(110+112)). Therefore, the true number of R 0 is expected to be in the range of 1.5-2.1. These numbers are slightly smaller than other estimates, but far greater than one.
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