Selected article for: "early exponential regime and exponential regime"
Author: Ke Wu; Didier Darcet; Qian Wang; Didier Sornette
Title: Generalized logistic growth modeling of the COVID-19 outbreak in 29 provinces in China and in the rest of the world
  • Document date: 2020_3_16
    • ID: 9607dy2o_111
    Snippet: [6594, 9138]) from GLM and 7928 (95% CI: [6341, 9754]) from Logistic model. For Italy, our estimated final fraction of population infected is found equal to 0.15% (95% CI: [0.03%, 0.30%]), which will be higher than Hubei, the epicenter in China of the epidemic. Our statistical analysis showed that the epidemic in Europe is in the early exponential regime and this is likely to continue for a while. This negative but probable scenario will provide .....
    Document: [6594, 9138]) from GLM and 7928 (95% CI: [6341, 9754]) from Logistic model. For Italy, our estimated final fraction of population infected is found equal to 0.15% (95% CI: [0.03%, 0.30%]), which will be higher than Hubei, the epicenter in China of the epidemic. Our statistical analysis showed that the epidemic in Europe is in the early exponential regime and this is likely to continue for a while. This negative but probable scenario will provide 114867 people infected in Europe in 10 days, corresponding to 0.015% European population. The generalized logistic model provides a lower (optimistic) bound, leading to a prediction of a total cumulative number of 164219 people infected, corresponding to 0.02% (95% CI: [0.005%, 0.044%]) of the European population.

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