A hierarchical temporal attention-based LSTM encoder-decoder model for individual mobility prediction

Li, Fa; Gui, Zhipeng; Zhang, Zhaoyu; Peng, Dehua; Tian, Siyu; Yuan, Kunxiaojia; Sun, Yunzeng; Wu, Huayi; Gong, Jianya; Lei, Yichen

Prediction of individual mobility is crucial in human mobility related applications. Whereas, existing research on individual mobility prediction mainly focuses on next location prediction and short-term dependencies between traveling locations. Long-term location sequence prediction is of great importance for long-time traffic planning and location advertising, and long-term dependencies exist as individual mobility regularity typically occurs daily and weekly. This paper proposes a novel hierarchical temporal attention-based LSTM encoder-decoder model for individual location sequence prediction. The proposed hierarchical attention mechanism captures both long-term and short-term dependencies underlying in individual longitudinal trajectories, and uncovers frequential and periodical mobility patterns in an interpretable manner by incorporating the calendar cycle of individual travel regularities into location prediction. More specifically, the hierarchical attention consists of local temporal attention to identify highly related locations in each day, and global temporal attention to discern important travel regularities over a week. Experiments on individual trajectory datasets with varying degree of traveling uncertainty demonstrate that our method outperforms four baseline methods on three evaluation metrics. In addition, we explore the interpretability of the proposed model in understanding individual daily, and weekly mobility patterns by visualizing the temporal attention weights and frequent traveling patterns associated with locations.