Author: Anatoly Zhigljavsky; Jack Noonan
Title: Generic probabilistic modelling and non-homogeneity issues for the UK epidemic of COVID-19 Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: gm1mb8w5_23
Snippet: The duration of time while a person with a virus is infected is modelled by Erlang distribution with shape parameter k = 3 and mean 21. The simulations are flexible and we can easily change these values and plot similar curves with updated data. Despite the full recovery taking slightly longer, 1/σ = 21 days is a good estimation for the period of time when people with severe infection may require intensive care, ventilator etc. Also, we believe .....
Document: The duration of time while a person with a virus is infected is modelled by Erlang distribution with shape parameter k = 3 and mean 21. The simulations are flexible and we can easily change these values and plot similar curves with updated data. Despite the full recovery taking slightly longer, 1/σ = 21 days is a good estimation for the period of time when people with severe infection may require intensive care, ventilator etc. Also, we believe that this is a suitable distribution for the period of time when such people may die.
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