Global trends in air travel: implications for connectivity and resilience to infectious disease threats

Ashleigh R Tuite; Deepit Bhatia; Rahim Moineddin; Isaac Bogoch; Alexander G Watts; Kamran Khan

In 2007 and 2016, 72% and 69% of countries, respectively, were categorized as Warning or Alert, indicating that 'significant parts of their societies and institutions were vulnerable to failure' 14 (Figure 1 ). Throughout this time period, the largest proportion of countries were assigned to the Warning category ( Table 1) 1,458,178) . We also observed a statistically significant relationship between FSI value and travel volumes, independent of the effect of time (Figure 2) . Each 1-unit increase in FSI score (increasing fragility) in a country was associated with a decrease of 62,595 passengers (95% CI: 38,358 to 86,832, Table S1 ). This is equivalent to a 2.9% (95% CI: 2.3-3.5%) reduction in passengers per 1-unit increase in FSI score ( Table S2) . . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.