Insights on defeating coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak and predicting tourist arrival on the Chinese Hainan Leisure Island during the COVID-19 pandemic

Liu, Gang; Chen, Jingyao; Chen, Zhuo; Zhu, GuanLai; Lin, Shidao; Huang, Shigao; Li, Xin

BACKGROUND: Hainan province is a very popular leisure tourist arriving city in China. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in China and rapidly in early 2020, and due to its rapid worldwide spread, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 as a global emergency. During the COVID-19 pandemic in Hainan province, many businesses and economies were influenced in this unexpected event, especially in tourism. METHODS: This study used 2 classical forecasting methods to predict the number of tourists on Hainan Leisure Island from September to December in the second half of 2020 and to summarize the COVID-19 fighting experience during the pandemic. In addition, the Hainan government implemented epidemic control measures to resume production and work, and promote new tourism measures to acquire superior COVID-19 protection. RESULTS: Winter's method provides a statistical model for predicting the number of visitors to Hainan under normal conditions. The trend analysis method considers the impact of the black swan event, an irregular event, and only uses the data under the influence of the event to predict according to the trend. CONCLUSION: If the impact of the black swan event (COVID-19) continues, the prediction can be made using this method. In addition, the Hainan government has undertaken timely and effective measures against COVID-19 to promote leisure tourism development.