Author: Ahmetolan, Semra; Bilge, Ayse Humeyra; Demirci, Ali; Peker-Dobie, Ayse; Ergonul, Onder
Title: What Can We Estimate from Fatality and Infectious Case Data? A case Study of Covid-19 Pandemic Cord-id: prmp6ega Document date: 2020_4_27
ID: prmp6ega
Snippet: Daily case reports and daily fatalities for China, South Korea, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Iran, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States over the period January 22, 2020 - April 20, 2020 are analysed using the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model. For each country, the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) models fitting cumulative infective case data within 5% error are analysed. It is shown that the quantity that can be the most robustly estimated from the normalized data, is the
Document: Daily case reports and daily fatalities for China, South Korea, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Iran, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States over the period January 22, 2020 - April 20, 2020 are analysed using the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model. For each country, the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) models fitting cumulative infective case data within 5% error are analysed. It is shown that the quantity that can be the most robustly estimated from the normalized data, is the timing of the maximum and timings of the inflection points of the proportion of infected individuals.
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