Forecasting the Worldwide Spread of COVID-19 based on Logistic Model and SEIR Model

Xiang Zhou; Na Hong; Yingying Ma; Jie He; Huizhen Jiang; Chun Liu; Guangliang Shan; Longxiang Su; Weiguo Zhu; Yun Long

In conclusion, our study demonstrated that reducing the contact rate is a key measure in controlling the spread of disease at an early stage, and spending enough time in quarantine would decrease the scale of cases after the peak. Therefore, implementing strong containment policies during the early spreading stages of COVID-19 and flattening the peak to avoid overloading the healthcare system should be listed as the main actions in these high-risk countries/regions. After the strict quarantine period, governments still need to raise public awareness of precautions and the importance of engaging in self-protective behaviors to bring the epidemic under control as a series of scattered events. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.