Author: Gabriel G. Katul; Assaad Mrad; Sara Bonetti; Gabriele Manoli; Anthony J. Parolari
Title: Global convergence of COVID-19 basic reproduction number and estimation from early-time SIR dynamics Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: 3iec1te8_15
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060954 doi: medRxiv preprint limitation, which is inherent to all such analyses, is shifts in testing frequency at high i, 150 and thus the increase in confirmed cases due to expanded testing. It is to be noted that 151 a log-log representation will be more robust to these shifts, because the overall graph 152 will be biased by the i.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060954 doi: medRxiv preprint limitation, which is inherent to all such analyses, is shifts in testing frequency at high i, 150 and thus the increase in confirmed cases due to expanded testing. It is to be noted that 151 a log-log representation will be more robust to these shifts, because the overall graph 152 will be biased by the initial slope prior to the initialization of expanded testing. Such 153 bias should lead to increases in di/dt versus i, not declines from the initial slope 154 (R o − 1) that can be detected. As later shown, such an increase has been noted in 155 several data sets.
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