Coronavirus disease-19 spread in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, updates and prediction of disease progression in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Pakistan

Sharif, Asmaa Fady; Mattout, Sara Kamal; Mitwally, Noha Adel

OBJECTIVES: The present study is considered the first study that aims to estimate the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID)-19 pandemic in the Eastern Mediterranean Region and to predict the pattern of spread among Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) in comparison to Iran and Pakistan. METHODS: Data during the period from January 29, 2020, till April 14, 2020, were extracted from 76 WHO situational reports and from the Worldometer website. Numbers of populations in each country were considered during data analysis. Susceptible, infectious, recovered, and deaths (SIRD) model and smoothing spline regression model were used to predict the number of cases in each country. RESULTS: SIRD model in KSA yielded β = 2e-0.6, γ = 0.006, and μ = 0.00038 and R(0)= 0.00029. It is expected that by the 1(st) of May 2020, that number of cumulative infected cases would rise to 16848 in KSA and to 11,825 in Pakistan while in Iran, it is expected that the number mostly will be 100485. Moreover, the basic reproduction number R(0) is expected to decrease by time progression. CONCLUSION: The cumulative infected cases are expected to grow exponentially. Although R(0) is expected to be decreased, the quarantine measures should be maintained or even enhanced.