Selected article for: "cc NC International license and infected people"
Author: Anatoly Zhigljavsky; Jack Noonan
Title: Generic probabilistic modelling and non-homogeneity issues for the UK epidemic of COVID-19
  • Document date: 2020_4_7
    • ID: gm1mb8w5_79
    Snippet: The y-axis in Figures 14 and 15 , after multiplication by 140, can be roughly interpreted as hundreds in the London epidemic assuming R 0 = 2.5, x = 0.9 on March 23 and homogeneity of the epidemic (as there is about 9m people in London out of 64.1m). As mentioned in Section 3, deaths numbers in other regions of the UK should be expected to be lower. Figures 12-15 . If the value x (proportion of non-infected people on March 23) happens to be large.....
    Document: The y-axis in Figures 14 and 15 , after multiplication by 140, can be roughly interpreted as hundreds in the London epidemic assuming R 0 = 2.5, x = 0.9 on March 23 and homogeneity of the epidemic (as there is about 9m people in London out of 64.1m). As mentioned in Section 3, deaths numbers in other regions of the UK should be expected to be lower. Figures 12-15 . If the value x (proportion of non-infected people on March 23) happens to be larger than 0.9 then the second wave of epidemic should be expected to be (perhaps, considerably) larger. If x < 0.9 then the second wave will be less pronounced. . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.

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