Author: Deeb, Omar El; Jalloul, Maya
Title: The Dynamics of COVID-19 spread in Lebanon Cord-id: aiom9yby Document date: 2020_5_14
ID: aiom9yby
Snippet: We explore the spread of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Lebanon by adopting three different approaches, namely the SEIR model, a model of repeated iterations and a Fermi-Dirac-like model. We fit the first seventy five days of available daily data since the first diagnosed case and we forecast possible scenarios of contagion associated with different levels of social distancing measures. We determine the initial reproductive transmission rate in Lebanon and its subsequent dynamics. Ou
Document: We explore the spread of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Lebanon by adopting three different approaches, namely the SEIR model, a model of repeated iterations and a Fermi-Dirac-like model. We fit the first seventy five days of available daily data since the first diagnosed case and we forecast possible scenarios of contagion associated with different levels of social distancing measures. We determine the initial reproductive transmission rate in Lebanon and its subsequent dynamics. Our results suggest that preserving severe mitigation measures would halt the spread of the disease. Nevertheless, relaxing measures would trigger a second outbreak of infections within a couple of weeks, with severity depending on the extent of relaxation.
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