On the usefulness of the bioclimatic correlative models of SARS-CoV-2

Gutiérrez-Hernández, Oliver; García, Luis V.

This paper addresses the effects of atmospheric conditions on the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus and its associated disease, COVID-19. We assess the limitations of bioclimatic correlative models to explain the geographic distribution of SARS-CoV-2 in the context of medical geography. There is a broad consensus that the global distribution of COVID-19 is not random but conditioned by environmental drivers. However, as the COVID-19 distribution becomes global, including tropical climates, the evidence reveals that atmospheric conditions explain, at most, only a limited amount of the space-time dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. The usefulness of approaches based on bioclimatic envelopes is in question since the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19 seems to be the anthroposphere's non-stationary environment. There is a need to clarify further the role of different transmission routes at multiple scales and outdoor and indoor environments beyond bioclimatic envelopes. At this time, the possible influence of the weather in COVID-19 spread is not sufficient to be taken into account in public health policies. Until reliable bioclimatic envelopes of SARS-CoV-2, if any, are found, caution should be exercised when reporting, as this could have unforeseen consequences, mainly when conclusions are based on interim results that have not been subjected to peer review.