Forecasting ultra-early intensive care strain from COVID-19 in England

Jacob Deasy; Emma Rocheteau; Katharina Kohler; Daniel J. Stubbs; Peitro Barbiero; Pietro Liò; Ari Ercole

in the UK has led to stringent requirements for testing with only cases requiring hospitalisation being routinely tested [16] . By incorporating a 'delay to ICU' parameter within our model, that can take on negative values (thus indicating a diagnosis after ICU admission), we hope to have replicated the anecdotal experience of clinicians in these early phases of the pandemic; that a substantial proportion of patients are being con- forecast numbers as these data inform our standardised estimates of ICU cases from within each population [9] . Similarly, as already intimated, UK case definition has evolved over time. If the upturn in COVID-19 cases seen at the time of writing is largely driven by increased or altered ascertainment rather than a true rise in cases, 7 . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.