Forecasting ultra-early intensive care strain from COVID-19 in England

Jacob Deasy; Emma Rocheteau; Katharina Kohler; Daniel J. Stubbs; Peitro Barbiero; Pietro Liò; Ari Ercole

Epidemiological simulation has previously been successful in predicting the need for surge H1N1 ICU capacity in 2009 [4, 5] . In recent days, a similar simulation model for COVID-19 has been described [6] , which suggests an overwhelming demand for critical care, with a peak occurring between May and early June 2020 and lasting 2 to 3 months depending on non-pharmacological intervention (NPI) assumptions. Such models are very useful but do not incorporate up-to-date data. Such projected timescales are unlikely to be reliable and are unsuitable for real-time surveillance and early warning. In this paper we use published COVID-19 diagnosis data for England to generate the earliest possible estimates of additional ICU demand due to infections in the coming days, based on cautious epidemiological data from the literature and under the assumption that the current increase in cases represents the exponential phase of an outbreak rather than a change in ascertainment. Our emphasis is on making an updatable model from the little timeseries data that are available in this ultra-early period, with the understanding that assumptions are necessary where data are unavailable. Our