Forecasting ultra-early intensive care strain from COVID-19 in England

Jacob Deasy; Emma Rocheteau; Katharina Kohler; Daniel J. Stubbs; Peitro Barbiero; Pietro Liò; Ari Ercole

The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03. 19 Overall, Figure 4 shows predictions that will challenge ICU capacity in all areas, particularly in populous regions. London and the Midlands will gain a number of COVID-19 patients equi-valent to 100% standard capacity within 14 days for slightly di↵erent reasons. In London, despite the higher number of ICU beds per capita, the higher case incidence per capita will overwhelm ICU capacity. Whereas in the Midlands, due to an increased average age, a higher percentage of ICU admissions is predicted (see Table 1 ), which combined with a higher number of cases than other regions will lead to exhausted capacity. As normal occupancy is often above 80%, even the additional minimum capacity due to COVID-19 of 20% in other regions will prove to be di cult to 5 . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.