Global versus focused isolation during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic-A cost-effectiveness analysis

Amir Shlomai; Ari Leshno; Ella H Sklan; Moshe Leshno

We next tested our model with a strategy of strict isolation of all infected individuals, relaxed isolation for two weeks of the high-risk group and a global quarantine of the susceptible population (strategy 1). Applying this strategy will yield a peak of 9,350 people infected followed by a rapid decline (Fig. 2, I) with a total of 14,995 infected patients over the 200 days period. Under this strategy, the maximal number of deaths is expected to be 389 (Fig. 2, D) and it will be reached after ~ 100 days. Our second proposed strategy includes a focused isolation of all infected individuals while using relaxed isolation and repeated PCR testing of high-risk individuals every four days. Under these conditions, the maximum number of infected individuals will be slightly increased to 9,713, with a total of 16,658 infected patients over the 200 days period (Fig. 3, I) . The total number of deaths will increase to 432 (Fig. 3, D) . Under these conditions, the cost of preventing one case of death is $ 102,383,282.