A prospect on the use of antiviral drugs to control local outbreaks of COVID-19

Andrea Torneri; Pieter Jules Karel Libin; Joris Vanderlocht; Anne-Mieke Vandamme; Johan Neyts; Niel Hens

the model to represent the viral load decrease thereof. 23 In this manuscript we first present the effect of isolation, considering both home quarantine (for 24 individuals that are part of a contact trace network and for infected individuals with mild symptoms) 25 and hospital isolation (for severe cases). We argue that when an individual is quarantined at home, 26 this will only result in a partial reduction of contacts, accounting for contacts with household 27 members and other isolation imperfectness. To compensate for this imperfect isolation, we consider 28 the use of an antiviral compound. We test these different control measures in a simulation study 29 that aims at representing, given the available information, the current COVID-19 epidemic. While 30 at this phase of the epidemic, many countries are already beyond the point of local containment. We 31 do however expect that the methodology we propose will be key to avoid a second peak, especially 32 given the limited depletion of susceptibles. Individuals are initially susceptible (S) and once infected, they enter the exposed class (E). The on the notion of infectious contact processes. 5 First, contacts between individuals are generated.