Author: Anatoly Zhigljavsky; Jack Noonan
Title: Generic probabilistic modelling and non-homogeneity issues for the UK epidemic of COVID-19 Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: gm1mb8w5_19
Snippet: The model varies depending on purposes of the study. The main ingredients are: I m (t) is the birthand-death processes and R m (t) is the associated pure birth processes. The process of transmission is the Poisson process with intensity β (time to next transmission has the exponential density βe −βt , t > 0). After the intervention (for t ≥ t 0 ), the Poisson process of transmission for m-the group has intensity β m . We treat this model .....
Document: The model varies depending on purposes of the study. The main ingredients are: I m (t) is the birthand-death processes and R m (t) is the associated pure birth processes. The process of transmission is the Poisson process with intensity β (time to next transmission has the exponential density βe −βt , t > 0). After the intervention (for t ≥ t 0 ), the Poisson process of transmission for m-the group has intensity β m . We treat this model as purely stochastic despite parts of it can be written it terms of systems of stochastic differential equations. Despite running pure simulation models taking longer than running combined models, they are simpler and less prone to certain errors.
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