Author: Anatoly Zhigljavsky; Jack Noonan
Title: Generic probabilistic modelling and non-homogeneity issues for the UK epidemic of COVID-19 Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: gm1mb8w5_72
Snippet: The death probabilities p m are given from Table 1 in [3] and replicated many times by the BBC and other news agencies are: Unfortunately, these numbers do not match the other key number given in [3] : the UK average mortality rate which is estimated to be about 0.9%. As we feel the value of the UK average mortality rate is more important, we have multiplied all probabilities above by 0.732 to get the average mortality rate to be 0.9%......
Document: The death probabilities p m are given from Table 1 in [3] and replicated many times by the BBC and other news agencies are: Unfortunately, these numbers do not match the other key number given in [3] : the UK average mortality rate which is estimated to be about 0.9%. As we feel the value of the UK average mortality rate is more important, we have multiplied all probabilities above by 0.732 to get the average mortality rate to be 0.9%.
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