Predictors of progression from moderate to severe COVID-19: a retrospective cohort

Cheng, Biao; Hu, Jiahao; Zuo, Xiuran; Chen, Jian; Li, Xiaochao; Chen, Yuchen; Yang, Guoliang; Shi, Xiaowu; Deng, Aiping

OBJECTIVE: Most coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases were identified as moderate, which is defined as having a fever or dry cough and lung imaging with ground-glass opacities. The risk factors and predictors of prognosis in such cohorts remain uncertain. METHODS: All adult patients with COVID-19 of moderate severity diagnosed using qRT-PCR and hospitalized at the Central Hospital of Wuhan, China, from Jan 1 to Mar 20, 2020 were enrolled in this retrospective study. The main outcomes were progression from moderate to severe or critical condition or death. RESULTS: Among the 456 enrolled patients with moderate COVID-19, 251/456 (55.0%) had poor prognosis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified higher NLR on admission (OR =1.032, 95%CI 1.042-1.230, P = 0.004) and higher CRP on admission (OR =3.017, 95%CI 1.941-4.690, P < 0.001) were associated with increased odds ratios of poor prognosis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for NLR and CRP in predicting progression to critical condition was 0.77 (95% CI 0.694-0.846, P < 0.001) and 0.84 (95% CI 0.780-0.905, P < 0.001), with a cut-off value of 2.79 and 25.95 mg/l, respectively. The AUC of NLR and CRP in predicting death was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.732-0.878, P < 0.001) and 0.89 (95% CI 0.825-0.946, P < 0.001), with a cut-off value of 3.19 and 33.4 mg/l, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of NLR and CRP at admission were associated with poor prognosis of moderate COVID-19 patients. NLR and CRP were good predictors of progression to critical condition and death.