Author: Bimandra A Djaafara; Natsuko Imai; Esther Hamblion; Benido Impouma; Christl A Donnelly; Anne Cori
Title: A quantitative framework to define the end of an outbreak: application to Ebola Virus Disease Document date: 2020_2_20
ID: nnkholfe_10
Snippet: We developed a quantitative framework to determine the timing of an EO declaration, which divides the outbreak into three phases: the outbreak phase; the onset-to-outcome delay phase; and the EO declaration phase (Figure 1 ). The outbreak phase encompasses the outbreak trajectory which includes all detected cases up until the time that the EO analysis is about to be conducted. The onset-tooutcome delay phase is the period between the onset of the.....
Document: We developed a quantitative framework to determine the timing of an EO declaration, which divides the outbreak into three phases: the outbreak phase; the onset-to-outcome delay phase; and the EO declaration phase (Figure 1 ). The outbreak phase encompasses the outbreak trajectory which includes all detected cases up until the time that the EO analysis is about to be conducted. The onset-tooutcome delay phase is the period between the onset of the last detected case to the outcome (recovery or death) of that case. In this phase, there is a risk of undetected cases sustaining transmission beyond the last detected case due to underreporting.
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