Author: Gonçalves, Antonio; Bertrand, Julie; Ke, Ruian; Comets, Emmanuelle; de Lamballerie, Xavier; Malvy, Denis; Pizzorno, Andrés; Terrier, Olivier; Rosa Calatrava, Manuel; Mentré, France; Smith, Patrick; Perelson, Alan S; Guedj, Jérémie
Title: Timing of antiviral treatment initiation is critical to reduce SARSâ€CoVâ€2 viral load Cord-id: osolval7 Document date: 2020_6_18
ID: osolval7
Snippet: We modeled the viral dynamics of 13 untreated patients infected with SARSâ€CoVâ€2 to infer viral growth parameters and predict the effects of antiviral treatments. In order to reduce peak viral load by more than 2 logs, drug efficacy needs to be greater than 90% if treatment is administered after symptom onset; an efficacy of 60% could be sufficient if treatment is initiated before symptom onset. Given their pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic properties, current investigated drugs may be in a ran
Document: We modeled the viral dynamics of 13 untreated patients infected with SARSâ€CoVâ€2 to infer viral growth parameters and predict the effects of antiviral treatments. In order to reduce peak viral load by more than 2 logs, drug efficacy needs to be greater than 90% if treatment is administered after symptom onset; an efficacy of 60% could be sufficient if treatment is initiated before symptom onset. Given their pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic properties, current investigated drugs may be in a range of 6â€87% efficacy. They may help control virus if administered very early, but may not have a major effect in severe patients.
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