Author: Gerardo Chowell; Ranu Dhillon; Devabhaktuni Srikrishna
Title: Getting to zero quickly in the 2019-nCov epidemic with vaccines or rapid testing Document date: 2020_2_5
ID: 4sw1hrnf_28
Snippet: We modeled the average number of days it would take to get to zero cases once the reproduction number declines below the epidemic threshold of 1.0 for various control interventions. For this purpose, we generated stochastic simulations [3] using the compartmental model described in the previous section assuming that the initial prevalence of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) infections is at 0.1% in a population of 10 million. To calculate the av.....
Document: We modeled the average number of days it would take to get to zero cases once the reproduction number declines below the epidemic threshold of 1.0 for various control interventions. For this purpose, we generated stochastic simulations [3] using the compartmental model described in the previous section assuming that the initial prevalence of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) infections is at 0.1% in a population of 10 million. To calculate the average number of days to get to zero cases, we simulated a total of 200 stochastic epidemics.
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