COVID-19 Air Traffic Visualization: COVID-19 Cases in China Were Likely 37 Times Higher Than Reported in January 2020

Mouton, Christopher A.; Hanson, Russell Grissom Adam R.; Godges, John P.; Corporation, Rand

The COVID-19 Air Traffic Visualization (CAT-V) tool combines COVID-19 case data from Johns Hopkins University and International Air Transport Association air travel data to examine COVID-19 virus transmission as a result of commercial air travel. In this report, COVID-19 case reports from China are examined along with detailed flight data. Using the CAT-V tool the authors determined that the five countries most at risk of COVID-19 transmission from China were: Japan, Thailand, South Korea, United States, and Taiwan. Based on the number of passengers who flew from China to these five countries during December 31, 2019 to January 22, 2020 and China's reported case rate, it is calculated that the expected COVID-19 exportation rate would be less than one case in all five countries combined. However, since all five countries had reported COVID-19 cases by January 22, 2020, it is estimated that the actual case rate in China would need to be approximately 37 times higher than reported (18,700 cases versus 503 cases reported on January 22, 2020) to reach the odds of a COVID-19 case appearing in each country.