Author: Ke Wu; Didier Darcet; Qian Wang; Didier Sornette
Title: Generalized logistic growth modeling of the COVID-19 outbreak in 29 provinces in China and in the rest of the world Document date: 2020_3_16
ID: 9607dy2o_108
Snippet: For countries that are in the middle of the outbreak, we used some useful experience from China to interpret the calibration results from different models, and made future scenario projections. For Japan, the situation is found similar to phase II-III in mainland China and the estimated total number of cases as of March 25 will be1574 (95% CI: [880, 2372]), and 5669 (95% CI: [988, 11340] ) by the end of May. However, it took China two weeks to re.....
Document: For countries that are in the middle of the outbreak, we used some useful experience from China to interpret the calibration results from different models, and made future scenario projections. For Japan, the situation is found similar to phase II-III in mainland China and the estimated total number of cases as of March 25 will be1574 (95% CI: [880, 2372]), and 5669 (95% CI: [988, 11340] ) by the end of May. However, it took China two weeks to reduce the growth rate from 10% to 1% under extreme containment measures and Japan is still far from achieving this result.
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