Selected article for: "additional information and social distancing"
Author: Ziyue Liu; Wensheng Guo
Title: Government Responses Matter: Predicting Covid-19 cases in US under an empirical Bayesian time series framework
  • Document date: 2020_3_30
    • ID: boa0n9dz_19
    Snippet: We have proposed a new prediction method for predicting total COVID-19 cases of US by incorporating the information from other countries. While we demonstrated our method in predicting US cases, our method can be used for predicting state-by-state data as well as hospital-by-hospital data. Our prediction intervals are much smaller than most exiting methods due to the additional information from the reference country. We show that the current traj.....
    Document: We have proposed a new prediction method for predicting total COVID-19 cases of US by incorporating the information from other countries. While we demonstrated our method in predicting US cases, our method can be used for predicting state-by-state data as well as hospital-by-hospital data. Our prediction intervals are much smaller than most exiting methods due to the additional information from the reference country. We show that the current trajectory in US is most similar to that in Italy. The stronger response from Italy has led to slowing down of the spread in the last few days, while the effect of social distancing in the US has not shown in the observed data.

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