Author: Amir Shlomai; Ari Leshno; Ella H Sklan; Moshe Leshno
Title: Global versus focused isolation during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic-A cost-effectiveness analysis Document date: 2020_4_1
ID: 1mpp7sbt_53
Snippet: One of the major concerns of the health authorities is that the number of patients needing intensive care and mechanical ventilation will overcome the local health care system capacity. This is the rationale underlying the efforts to "flatten the curve" thereby avoiding a narrow and high peak of infected patients that is necessarily accompanied by a substantial number of patients in severe condition. According to our model, a strategy of avoiding.....
Document: One of the major concerns of the health authorities is that the number of patients needing intensive care and mechanical ventilation will overcome the local health care system capacity. This is the rationale underlying the efforts to "flatten the curve" thereby avoiding a narrow and high peak of infected patients that is necessarily accompanied by a substantial number of patients in severe condition. According to our model, a strategy of avoiding any active step to contain the virus will result in an unacceptable number of infected people (7.65 million) and an extremely high death rate (~200,000 people), and therefore is not realistic. In contrast, the difference in the peak number of infected patients between the two main strategies tested is ~360 patients, in favor of strategy 1.
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